The great disruption why the climate crisis

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Jun 28, Michael rated it it was ok Shelves: nonfiction-read. Gilding's premise is that the current "system" economy and culture based on continuous growth and the accumulation of "stuff" is unsustainable and must be replaced by one that is sustainable steady state economy with redistribution of wealth and a focus on personal development, human relationships, and community.

Using climate change as an example of how the current system is dysfunctional, he points out that we are currently using 1. He proposes that we may have reached the end of economic growth in and that we have already damaged the climate through the release of greenhouse gasses to the point that the planet will warm two degrees F by the end of the century without drastic action.

He believes that the collapse of the old economy and the effects of global climate change will lead to "The Great Disruption," a kind of bottleneck through which humanity must pass in order to survive. The disruption droughts, crop failures, loss of land to rising seas, mass migrations, economic collapse, failed states -- in other words, chaos will result in the loss of a few billion people, but it will inspire an effort equivalent to that of the West in World War II, which will end global warming through "The One Degree War," effect a transition to clean energy sources, create a new and socially just economic system, and focus the energies of those who remain on achieving happiness I assume in the Aristotelian sense rather than on shopping.

Although he has the science right, I think he is a bit too sanguine about human nature. His "one degree war" intended to limit global warming to only one degree relies heavily on untried, expensive, and possibly unsafe technical fixes carried over the century. The transition to a new economy and clean energy technology will take place largely during "The Great Disruption" and will be given urgency and credibility by that destabilizing event.

We only have to look at Somalia to get an idea of how difficult it is to effect major changes in the midst of chaos. He fervently believes that we will respond too slowly to the coming crisis but with overpowering zeal and ingenuity when we do respond. I hope he is right about that response; I fear that he is very wrong. Jun 23, Rob rated it it was ok Shelves: climate-change.

Well good in parts. His basic premise is that as things get truly awful government, business and the general population will then go into full gear combating climate change. The effort will be as fierce as the American, British and Russian although can't remember him saying Russian effort during WW2.

I'm not so sure. The depths vested interests will go to save their position is pretty damn low. You could make out a case that it is not so much a WW2 response that is instructive but rather the re Well good in parts.

You could make out a case that it is not so much a WW2 response that is instructive but rather the response of the slave holding class in America's South. As time went on the South's position hardened. So much so that slave holding was held up as a moral good by A small class pushed the South into a fratricidal war. When we have the will it will be done. The deniers have won for the moment. And maybe it is too late. The weirdest part of the politics is that every section of government is preparing for climate change.

Big business is preparing for it. It will be messy. The response may be authoritarian. It may be chaotic; it may be vengeful. When opinion does change, as it inevitably will, it could well be like that Italian angry crowd response to Mussolini in But what about the technocrats in every level of government working for either the denying or the spineless politician? Will the rest of big business be willing to fry to save the big polluters?

We live in interesting times. The books point however, is because we need this response it will happen. I think that the author is naive. He IS a good person. The science IS right. The suggested way of tackling climate IS on the money but things are gonna get a lot worse before they get better.

And this is the part that he should have looked at and that is that the politics of the situation will be fought out in unfamiliar and uncomfortable ways for Western democracies.

View 1 comment. Jul 14, Chris rated it did not like it Shelves: didn-t-finish. No mas!! This was "the great disruption" to my reading zen. I could only make it to page I was very, very disappointed with this book. I had heard an interview with the author on NPR and he was stimulating. This book is a poorly organized rant and all over the place with gratuitous information about his personal life and belaboring a point and going down streets and alleys of irrelvant information and a myriad of metrics.

He has too much passion and tries too hard to make his point that the No mas!! He has too much passion and tries too hard to make his point that the environment drives the economy and the world will be changing soon. I believe him,I'll listen to him, but I can't read his book.

View all 3 comments. Jun 03, Natasha rated it really liked it. In the last five years I have read a lot of books about climate change, peak oil and the economic outlook caused by these events.

In the past I would be filled with a sense of dread over the coming global changes. Now it seems that authors are trying to give us a sense of hope rather than despair.

They tell us that, yes, the Earth has changed for good due to human activity, but all is not lost, things will actually be better in the long run when we are forced to change our ways. This book falls In the last five years I have read a lot of books about climate change, peak oil and the economic outlook caused by these events.

This book falls in line with the Optimist point of view. All in all Eaarth, by Bill McKibben, is a more compelling read, but this book is excellent reading as well. Here is the bottom line according to Gilding: "With all of us in charge, we live in the ultimate global democracy and we vote every minute of every day. We all know what we need to do. Shop less, live more. Raise chickens, and children who think. Build more community, make our lives more connected. Make good companies grow stronger, make bad companies go broke.

Elect good political leaders, throw out bad ones. Roll out technologies that work and phase out those that don't. Most of all, we need to stop waiting for some else to fix it.

There is no one else. We are the system; we have to change. Gilding is evidently in between the strong environmentalist and climate change denying camps.

He's worked for Greenpeace but has also been an environmental consultant for many a major corporation. So, I tend to think of him as coming from a somewhat fair and balanced place. This book is disturbing in its implications that climate change as well as issues related to overpopulation and overconsumption will have dramatic and inevitable impacts on the world, its environment, its species, and our econ Gilding is evidently in between the strong environmentalist and climate change denying camps.

This book is disturbing in its implications that climate change as well as issues related to overpopulation and overconsumption will have dramatic and inevitable impacts on the world, its environment, its species, and our economic and social systems. Gilding says that you don't have to believe the changes are coming, but the world must prepare to do something about the changes once they start happening in a way that catches people's attention.

One way is what he outlines as the "one degree war" where he compares a global response to climate change and resource scarcity to the global response to WWII. This is a comparison he makes frequently with, I think, convincing reasoning. His idea is that global governments will lead the charge in demanding changes to manufacturing and creating regulations that will help keep temperature rise to one degree. He acknowledges that many people are pessimistic that such changes can occur given the utter failure to respond to climate change thus far despite decades of evidence and warnings, but he is ultimately somewhat optimistic about the possibility, in part because to be pessimistic is to admit failure and simply write off the future of the world.

Note that even his optimistic view still has perhaps a billion people 1,,, starving and becoming refugees that destabilize the world as we've come to know it. As part of this "optimism," Gilding spends the last third or so of his book painting scenarios of success and recommending things that can be done now to help lessen the effects of the impending changes. Still, I hope to look at some of his other recommendations and predictions and see how they've done since his writing.

One final thought - Gilding sees an "end to growth" as inevitable given that we're using resources faster than the Earth can sustain. This changed to a steady state economy is intriguing and sounds quite logical if only enough people would embrace it.

I'm ready to give it a try. Overall, this is an important, if somewhat flawed could use some editing , book that shows at least one path by which civilization can lessen the impacts of the coming changes. I hope my political representatives and leaders of companies I support will read enough of it to start thinking about what they can do to prepare for the future.

Jul 04, Amy Flaherty rated it really liked it. I heard of this book on NPR and was intrigued because it was a book about the next years that was not completely doom and gloom. Much different than the usual "run for the hills and raise hogs and chickens" type of message.

The author is a veteran environmentalist who has actually put his money where his mouth is several times. He writes of his personal struggle with the change in the environment but then also how he has worked with many of the "game changers" such as the CEO's of large co I heard of this book on NPR and was intrigued because it was a book about the next years that was not completely doom and gloom.

He writes of his personal struggle with the change in the environment but then also how he has worked with many of the "game changers" such as the CEO's of large companies as a consultant for them to get ready for the changes in the economy which will be a result of the stress of the planet from overpopulation, overuse of resources and poor planning.

His basic thesis is one of hope though, again it still surprises me. He makes the argument that our species is very good at facing very poor odds and still making it; he states we are "slow not stupid.

We will do this through many different methods, which he outlines in the book. I recommend this book if you are curious about the changes in the economy in the next 20 years and how it will affect you and yours BUT don't want something that makes you want to go ahead and put a bullet in your head. Overall, I feel I am better informed for reading the book and that's one of the best things about a good book May 24, Laura rated it it was ok.

I want to believe that Gilding is creating a book to convince CEOs to do fewer bad things, and that that's why he wrote it, and no other reason. I want to believe he doesn't necessarily agree with himself because a lot of the things he's saying don't make sense for people living CEO-free lives.

He says that innovative companies can survive the "great disruption" that climate change will bring to the economy when consumers shift towards more eco-friendly products. Then, he outlines a world where I want to believe that Gilding is creating a book to convince CEOs to do fewer bad things, and that that's why he wrote it, and no other reason. Then, he outlines a world where people focus on communities and not on money. Next, the main argument in this book can be summarized as: "We're on the brink of ecological collapse--but don't worry, humans aren't stupid and we'll figure our way out of it, we just have to plan.

We will end up planning and preparing because we'll have to. Don't worry it will happen, because it has to happen. In fact, it's most of the book. Plot twist, Paul! People don't just do things because they have to. I want you to check out the concept of the argument of adverse consequences. It's a concept that describes You relied almost entirely upon fallacious reasoning, Paul. Oh, and at some point he says, "We have to do this soon, and we will because there's no situation in which we can realistically solve the climate issue if we wait past to start preparing.

These ideas did not age well. Oct 14, Paul rated it liked it. If you no longer need argument and proof that the resources of this planet are finite skip to chapter The author's premise from that point on is that the imminent catastrophic events that will precipitate the meltdown of our ecosystem as well as our civilization will jolt us into a mode of hyper-focused activity and creativity that he compares relentlessly to the war effort in America and Britain during WWII.

This pulling together will then guarantee the human race a triumphant emergence o If you no longer need argument and proof that the resources of this planet are finite skip to chapter This pulling together will then guarantee the human race a triumphant emergence on the other side of the "great disruption": a time of enormous hardship during which all of us will set aside every one of our personal priorities to labor shoulder to shoulder on annihilating CO2, developing new sources of energy, create new farmland, and on, and on.

What disappoints me most about the book is that in its — to my sense — naive eagerness to put an almost euphoric spin on our ability to overcome every problem to be faced, the author conveniently?

Building energy efficient cars, and finding solutions for our dwindling supplies of fresh water will not stop the world population from growing exponentially every time we breathe. Nobody will disagree with me that cars don't pollute unless people drive them, and resources don't dry up unless there's too many people to consume them.

My view is that if it is true that every few seconds, somewhere in the world, a woman gives birth Mister Gilding, lets not worry about electric cars and biodegradable diapers until we find her Dec 19, Greg rated it really liked it Shelves: climate-change , environmentalism , economics , peak-energy , Please read this book.

Gilding makes the most coherent argument that I have read about the interconnections between capitalism, peak energy, and climate change, including several basic arguments that would ideally be understood by everyone. Gilding doesn't mince many words in describing the undesirable outcomes of reaching this point. Things look pretty bleak after the first few chapters.

However, Gilding then responds to this bleak picture with his inspiring ideas for transitioning to a new economy. He probably spends too much time on these and rambles too much.

But, after dismay-inducing initial chapters, I welcomed every idea that he had. The main point of the final chapters is that we need to start making changes now. Jun 22, David rated it really liked it Shelves: We have much more than climate change to worry about. The unraveling of the global economy due to limits on growth which the environment is placing on the system peak oil, overfishing, lack of irrigation water for food crops, etc is the other Big Problem which we are beginning to face.

Paul Gilding thinks that things will get much worse before we finally "get it" and get to work on facing these predicaments.

He assumes that once the majority finally sees the problems they will pressure governm We have much more than climate change to worry about.

He assumes that once the majority finally sees the problems they will pressure governments to act and that a WWII-style focus on steroids will reconfigure the world we live in.

I have my doubts but it is good to see some hope. Jan 02, Ben Thurley rated it liked it. We have reached or passed the limits of our current economic model of consumer-driven material economic growth. We are heading for a social and economic hurricane that will cause great damage, sweep away much of our current economy and our assumptions about the future, and cause a great crisis that will impact the whole world and to which there will be a dramatic response.

Predicting an upcoming crash of inter-related food shortages, climate disasters, economic disruption and geopolitical instability, Gilding also predicts that human beings won't change in time to avoid the crisis — but will mobilise with massive speed and resilience, "when our backs are to the wall. Political commitments to economic growth an unassailable dogma will soon come hard against the unforgiving laws of physics, biology and chemistry.

The earth is full; there is nowhere to put an economy that is twice the size of the earth, let alone five times the size. About Sarah. Downloadable Free Activities. Bloomsbury Digital Resources Products. Librarian Resources. Contact Information.

BDR Global Catalog. Bloomsbury Academic. Item added to basket. Checkout Continue Shopping. Add to basket. Add to wishlist. Ebook help. You must sign in to add this item to your wishlist. Please sign in or create an account. Description It's time to stop just worrying about climate change, says Paul Gilding.

Close Preview. About the contributors. Author Paul Gilding Paul Gilding is an international thought leader…. A remarkably optimistic view of the brave new world in our future. Related Titles.

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