What if china fails wilson quarterly

It dropped to 46 in and 21 in The wide gap in public health between urban and rural areas has also shrunk, at least as measured by some indicators, according to a recent study by sociologists Martin Whyte and Zhongxin Sun, and life expectancy has increased. Literacy is now virtually universal among the young, with women making especially great gains since At the higher end of the hierarchy, the annual number of newly enrolled university undergraduates rose by a factor of more than nine between and They are enjoying undreamed of geographic and career mobility and ever-broadening material and cultural horizons.

This has positive implications for the world. For one thing, wealthy people buy more goods and services from abroad than poor people do. The Institute of International Education reports that China had the second-biggest number of foreign students enrolled in U. Many Americans may not realize it, but education, like corn and automobiles, is an export item.

Unlike commodities and manufactured goods, however, talented Chinese graduate students contribute mightily to U. Huntington argued that development is a dynamic process in which societies strive for a balance between the capacity to regulate behavior and maintain order by building institutions and the demands of individuals to participate in political life.

If institutions are too strong, the result is authoritarianism. But unrestrained popular participation with no institutional capacity to regulate it leads to various degrees of anarchy.

Nonetheless, even as institutional strength has grown, so too has the space for individual and group action, except in the most directly political domains. Groups of citizens, for example, sometimes organize to stop or delay major infrastructure projects such as petrochemical facilities and, occasionally, nuclear power generating plants, and urban condominium owners now join together to protect their property.

China is not a land of black and white; it presents a complex picture of growing individual freedom, episodically increased repression, and institution building, all proceeding simultaneously. The overriding point is that the world has an interest in China keeping order as it enlarges freedom. Any mix of these developments would have mind-numbing human rights and security implications.

What is bad for China would be, in almost every case, bad for the world. Generally speaking, countries with economic wherewithal and social stability use resources more efficiently, even though the overall volume of consumed resources climbs with development.

It is also true that total energy consumption rises dramatically with development and urbanization despite increases in efficiency, and that has been the case in China.

Demand for electric power, for example, will more than double in the cities by , even though energy intensity, a measure of how much energy must be consumed to create a given amount of output, is declining. So why not hope China stops growing, or grows more slowly? Because wishing for a slowdown is not a policy. And because slower Chinese growth would stunt American growth prospects as well. No matter what some others may wish, relatively high growth rates are likely to continue in China.

Beijing generally has been fiscally prudent though many local governments have not , and individual debt burdens are comparatively low. China saves about 50 percent of its gross domestic product. Access to secondary and tertiary education and universities is rapidly improving.

The Chinese middle class is still only at the early stages of growth, so there is enormous potential for further expansion. Mobility is a defining feature of human civilization , says James Hollifield, a global fellow and public policy scholar with the Wilson Center, in his WQ contribution For most of recorded history, people have moved—voluntarily or involuntarily.

In the 21st century, migration has been recast by globalization—increased mobility has occurred in lockstep with increased free trade, travel, and access to information. These migration patterns yield multiple benefits, like innovation, cultural diversity, foreign exchange, and investment. Yet, trade-offs exist. This tense political climate poses a challenge to populations driven out of their homes by conflict and climate change. In a digital experience , Kayly Ober, senior advocate and program manager at Refugees International, presents a dire picture of how conflict and climate impacts are interacting with profound implications for forced displacement.

Through examples like Cyclone Amphan, which displaced 2. In his piece, A Hot Dusty Crossroads , journalist and environmental consultant Peter Schwartzstein details the climate change, migration, and fragility nexus in rural Iraq. Since , environmental degradation has dovetailed with sectarian and jihadist violence. Soaring temperatures, water shortages, and pollution have crippled the agriculture sector, with crop yields plummeting by almost 40 percent in villages across Southern Iraq.

Jihadists have controlled and at times even prohibited fertilizer purchases. Since dethroning Saddam Hussein, the presence of U. However, a marriage of like-minded partners, it is not. China and Russia do not share the same dream of a future world or even of their desired level of cooperation. Many challenges remain to cementing their partnership. Yet even absent a formal alliance, a growing convergence of mutual interests between China and Russia presents challenges to American priorities and goals for the Asia Pacific region and beyond.

It is therefore important to appreciate the potential for strengthened relations between China and Russia, address why a partnership may be of concern to the U. Political relations between China and Russia are currently far stronger than the ties either one has with the United States.

Meeting a dozen times in two years, Presidents Xi and Putin have made numerous statements on how they consider themselves to be the post-Cold War architects of a new world order. Their relationship is not yet, however, an alliance in the sense of a treaty that binds them in a mutual defense pact. There is a debate among foreign policy specialists within the United States whether or not the China-Russia partnership will ever take on the character of an alliance.

Much of the U. Conflicts over borders, a divergence in ideological paths following the Cold War, and the far more robust Chinese economy prevent them from forming a sustainable alliance.

Harvard Professor and former U. Prominent Chinese and Russian foreign policy experts share this doubt. Russian foreign policy experts likewise argue that there is no interest in a military alliance, because Moscow highly values its freedom of action and sovereignty over decision making. Another argument is that an alliance can happen, but only because America is weakened.

Critics of the Obama administration argue that the over the last 7 years President Obama has left America with an overburdened and underfunded military. In addition, its foreign policy, particularly its failed Middle East Policy, has created a vacuum. According to this argument, American weakness has driven China and Russia together and allowed them to dominate much of the Asia-Pacific region.

The reality is that Russia and China need one another for mutually beneficial, but limited, reasons. During the St. China needs to displace its local coal in power generation with cleaner natural gas, which Russia is able to deliver in terms of proximity and scope of supply.

Russia is similarly positioned as a desirable alternative supplier of oil to the volatile Middle East. China also desires access to Russian high tech weaponry. China has designs to buy a Russian aircraft carrier similar to the one sold to India. Apart from strategic resources and technologies, however, Russia is not particularly important as a trading partner to China. China may value Russia most of all for its geographical location and geopolitical power.

These mammoth transportation projects will require trillions of U. The newly established Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has 60 countries committed to funding this effort. Putin has cancelled or placed a temporary hold on two gas pipelines to Southeastern Europe due to poor political relations with customers.

If Russia cannot sell its supply in Europe, Asia is the logical alternative, with China as the primary investor and consumer.

China and Russia share different perceptions than America and her allies of nationalism, democracy, and individual rights. These perceptions and resulting policies contribute to three reasons why we should care whether Russia and China deepen their relationship. First, legitimacy for both the Chinese and Russian regimes is rooted in nationalism. The taking of Crimea and the South China Sea islands are stoking nationalistic fervor in their respective societies.

Both governments use media and education to promote this national vision. Second, China and Russia actively work to discourage democratic development globally.